D.5.2 Dose-response modelling of human data
Since the publication of the first edition of this document (i.e. ISO 10993-7:1995) and the second edition (i.e. ISO 10993-7:2008), new data has become available on the adverse cancer effects of EO in humans. When human data are available to assess the risk posed by exposure of patients to a carcinogenic compound, these data are preferred over animal data. A literature search was conducted to review the available cancer evaluations to compare to the cancer-based TI derived in ISO 10993-7:2008/Cor 1:2009. As mentioned previously, this cancer-based TI was not used in the derivation of the AL in the second edition of this document (i.e. ISO 10993-7:2008). Relevant publications since 2008 that evaluated EO exposure with respect to cancer risk are summarized in the following paragraphs of this subclause. When provided, the cancer unit risk has been converted to a TI and has been compared to the ISO 10993-7:2008 TI of 0,02 mg/kg/d.
In 2010, Valdez-Flores et al[241] published a quantitative cancer risk assessment based on the most updated epidemiology data at that time, the NIOSH and UCC cohorts. The risk of cancer death in these cohorts was not elevated, except for bone cancer, which was based on a small number of deaths, and no statistically significant relationship between cumulative EO exposure and cancer mortality was observed. Despite these negative findings, the excess cancer mortality risk for a continuous lifetime exposure was characterized based on US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guidelines[244] using several cohorts (e.g. NIOSH males) and cancer endpoints. The authors derived several effective concentrations corresponding to a one in a million excess environmental cancer risk for different worker groups, cancers and groups of cancers. Conversion of these concentrations to the corresponding exposures in mg/kg/d associated with a 10−4 cancer risk resulted in a range of cancer risk values correspond to TIs approximately 3-fold higher than the cancer-based TI derived in 2008. A subsequent publication by the same authors performed similar analyses to determine the occupational risk, which is a less appropriate comparison to medical device risk. This analysis was subsequently used by SCOEL in 2012 to recommend occupational limits[238].
Mikoczy et al.[236] reported a 16-year mortality and cancer incidence update of a cohort of Swedish sterilant workers. No statistically significant elevations in mortality and cancer incidence for lympho-hematopoietic cancers (LHCs) and some subtypes were observed. No evidence of increasing LHC risk with increasing cumulative EO exposure was observed. Breast cancer incidence and deaths were lower compared to the regional Swedish population, but incidence was increased to a statistically significant extent in the two highest cumulative exposure categories compared to the lowest. This lowest cumulative exposure group had much lower breast cancer incidence than the regional Swedish population. Furthermore, the higher exposed groups had cumulative exposures that are within the range of the lowest EO exposure category in the NIOSH cohort in which no such elevation in breast cancer incidence was observed. This study was limited by small numbers of observed cases and deaths, insufficient follow-up, and relatively low cumulative EO exposures.
In 2012, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC)[232] reaffirmed the classification of EO as carcinogenic to humans (Group 1) based on limited evidence in humans, sufficient evidence in animals, and strong mechanistic evidence. IARC does not perform quantitative cancer risk assessments.
In 2016, the US EPA[244] conducted a quantitative cancer risk assessment based on some of the same data used by Valdez-Flores et al, specifically the NIOSH cohort. There were several methodological differences between the US EPA assessment and that of Valdez-Flores et al. The US EPA set a unit risk value of 3,0 × 10−3 (μg/m3)−1 that at a 10−6 cancer risk level corresponds to a very low level of EO exposure, in the nanogram per kilogram per day range, which is within the range of estimates of endogenous EO exposure. The calculated risk value suggests that EO is one of the most potent known human carcinogens. US EPA also revised the EO carcinogenicity classification to “carcinogenic to humans” based on “strong, but less than conclusive” evidence in humans, “extensive evidence” in animals, and “clear evidence” of EO genotoxicity.
In 2017, Kirman and Hays[233] estimated endogenous EO exposure in air concentration equivalents using measured EO haemoglobin adducts in unexposed populations and correlations between these adducts and EO exposure concentrations in occupationally exposed workers. The estimates included adjustments for assumed inhalation rates and exposure frequencies between workers and the general population. These endogenous exposure equivalent estimates ranged from 0,37 ppb to 6,9 ppb (0,67 µg/m3 to 12 µg/m3) in air. Furthermore, Sheehan et al[239] estimated endogenous EO exposure based on EO haemoglobin adducts, based on the method of Kirman and Hays[233], but used a much larger database for the general population. Based on their calculations, endogenous EO exposure equivalents range from approximately 1,0 ppb to 5,3 ppb (1,8 µg/m3 to 9,5 µg/m3) in air for non-smokers.
In 2019, Marsh et al[235] published a meta-analysis of epidemiological studies on the association of occupational EO exposure and lympho-hematopoietic cancers (LHC) and breast cancer risk. The authors concluded that epidemiology studies published since 2000 provide the best information regarding breast cancer and LHC risks and EO exposure and that such studies do not support the conclusion that occupational exposure to EO is associated with an increased risk of LHC or breast cancer.
Also in 2019, Vincent et al[243] performed focused reviews on the epidemiological and toxicological evidence of EO carcinogenicity to validate the high carcinogenic potency of EO determined by the US EPA assessment. Consistent with Marsh et al., these authors concluded that EO epidemiology studies are “negative” and that therefore a risk assessment cannot be based on such studies. In addition, the authors concluded that the risk value calculated by US EPA appears not to be adequately justified.
In 2020, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ)[240] published a carcinogenic dose-response assessment for EO to be used for air remediation and permitting. The TCEQ concluded that EO is likely to be carcinogenic to humans on the basis of insufficient human data, sufficient animal data, and a putative mutagenic mode of action. TCEQ also conducted a quantitative cancer risk assessment based on the same NIOSH cohort used by Valdez-Flores et al and US EPA, but TCEQ used a different methodology to calculate cancer risk. The assessment resulted in a cancer risk value that, assuming linearity between the 10−4 and 10−5 risk levels, corresponds approximately to a TI that is 1,6-fold lower than the current cancer-based TI. The unit risk value produced by TCEQ is 2,3 × 10−6 (μg/m3)−1.
In 2021, the US National Toxicology Program (NTP), updated its classification of EO as “known to be a human carcinogen” based on “sufficient evidence” from studies in humans and “studies on mechanisms of carcinogenicity”. NTP does not perform quantitative cancer risk assessments[237].
In 2022, Lynch et al[234] conducted a systematic review of the evidence for the carcinogenicity of EO. The authors concluded that relatively high exposures of EO are associated with increased incidence of several tumour types in animals and that a mutagenic or genotoxic mode of action is supported by available evidence, but that epidemiologic evidence does not show a clear or consistent increase in cancer associated with occupational EO exposure.
ATSDR published a Toxicological Profile for EO in 2022[231]. The profile provides summaries of the studies and conclusions from US EPA, IARC and others, but does not draw independent conclusions regarding EO carcinogenicity or cancer risk.
Overall, evaluations published since 2008 indicate that US agencies consider EO to be a human carcinogen, but that epidemiological evidence is not conclusive in itself, despite some studies with thousands of subjects and long follow up times. Other authors disagree that EO is a carcinogen based on many of the same epidemiological studies. The disagreements are, at least in part, based on differences in data analysis and, in particular, whether data on exposed workers should be compared to that from an external reference population or those from workers with the lowest exposures.
Only a small number of these publications – Valdez-Flores[241], US EPA[244] and TCEQ[240] – provide estimates of cancer risk for the general population who can be exposed to EO. Comparing cancer risk estimates across these references is not straight forward because the modelled cancer endpoints, the exposure-response models themselves and the target cancer risk levels vary between References [240], [241] and [244], and the cancer risk models are not necessarily linear with cancer risk levels. With these caveats, the tolerable intakes derived from the cancer risk levels from these publications range from 9,5 × 10−6 to 5,7 × 10−2 mg/kg/d at an excess cancer risk of 10−4 in Table D.8. An allowable cancer risk of 10−4 is used and takes into account risk benefit considerations in ISO 14971 arising from use of a medical device that has been shown to improve patient health outcomes. These values fall within a factor of three of the current cancer-based TI value of 0,02 mg/kg/d derived in ISO 10993-7:2008/Cor 1:2009 with the value from US EPA the exception, see Table D.8. Collectively, the more recent evaluations of EO carcinogenicity do not substantially change the cancer-based TI. Therefore, the cancer-based TI of 0,02 mg/kg/d is retained.
Table D.8
Equivalent dose associated with 10−4 risk based on unit risk values compared to ISO 10993-7:2008/Cor 1:2009 cancer TI
| Reference |
Unit risk |
Equivalent dose associated with 10−4 risk |
Fold lower or higher than the ISO 10993-7:2008/Cor 1:2009 value |
| (µg/m3)−1 |
mg/kg/d |
|
| Reference [161] a |
5,8 × 10−7 |
0,019 |
— |
| Reference [137] a |
5,1 × 10−7 |
0,020 |
— |
| Reference [244] b |
3,0 × 10−3 |
9,5 × 10−6 |
2 100 × lower |
| Reference [240] b |
2,3 × 10−6 |
0,012 |
1,6 × lower |
| Reference [241] b,c |
9,3 × 10−7 |
0,031 |
1,5 × higher |
| Reference [242] b,d |
5,0 × 10−7 |
0,057 |
2,8 × higher |